Can Miami Win with Ryan Tannehill?

The grumblings down in South Florida have mostly surrounded the defense. The linebacker group drastically underperformed and secondary play was terrible. The defensive line was productive, but still did not meet expectations given the amount of talent and money invested into it. The upcoming draft is extremely important for the struggling Miami defense, as most analysts have Miami going either defensive line or secondary with the 13th overall pick, with the occasional case for Ezekiel Eliot or Derrick Henry since the departure of Lamar Miller and the failure to sign CJ Anderson.

After hiring offensive guru Adam Gase as the head coach, the Miami offense lead by quarterback Ryan Tannehill has stayed relatively out of the spotlight. That was until Greg Jennings appeared on ESPN, calling Ryan Tannehill “far from elite”, citing poor coaching as the main catalyst.  Jennings went on to say “We don’t know who Ryan Tannehill is, but we want him to be this great guy, this great quarterback, this franchise quarterback, but no one has given him the freedom, the luxury, to call plays, make checks, to do the things that a great quarterback will have the opportunity to do.” Let us look to what Ryan Tannehill has been, and then to what he can be next year.

Many argue that Ryan Tannehill has been an “average” quarterback through 4 years as an NFL starter. This stance is supported by his numbers, as Tannehill has yet to throw for more than 30 touchdown passes and for more than 4500 yards in any of his first four seasons. By comparison, his first round counterpart Andrew Luck threw for more than 4500 yards and 40 touchdowns during the 2014 campaign. NFL elite Tom Brady has thrown for over 4500 yards twice since 2012 and for over 30 touchdowns three times in the same duration.

Tannehill finished tied for third in the NFL for sacks in 2015. Defenses tallied 45 sacks against Tannehill, continuing his trend of being the most sacked quarterback in the NFL over the past four seasons. Overall, Tannehill finished 21st in passer rating turning in an 88.7, same as Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and just slightly less of Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan. Certainly not bad, but definitely not great has been the general synopsis of Ryan Tannehill’s career. For the most important position on the field, ‘not bad’ is simply not close to good enough.

Before looking to the future, perhaps the right thing to do is to look around Tannehill to see if he has been given a fair chance throughout his career. After all, football is a 53 man sport guided by a seemingly infinite amount of coaches and front office staff. Starting with coaching, Tannehill has seen three different offensive coordinators, two head coaches, and three GMs. By comparison, Tom Brady has had the same head coach his entire career, and only switched coordinators when an ostensibly better opportunity came about for them. Changing systems and coaches is never good for a quarterback, let alone a young quarterback trying to settle into the NFL.

sacked

For the 2016 season, the Dolphins have entrusted first year head coach Adam Gase and former Colts Offensive Coordinator Clyde Christensen to bring Tannehill from a good game manager to a great starting quarterback. The other question is personnel around Tannehill. The overall ranking for the Miami Dolphins offensive line in 2015 was 30th in the league according to Pro Football Focus, this includes a 27th ranking in pass blocking. Until Jarvis Landry, Miami has never had a true number 1 target throughout Ryan Tannehill’s career. Mike Wallace has proven to be a quarterback-specific receiver after falling flat in Minnesota and not much can be said for now departed Rishard Matthews and Brian Hartline. The development of Devante Parker will be intriguing going forward, and will hopefully add a much needed weapon. During the last three weeks of the 2015 season, Parker hauled in 13 catches for 286 yards and 1 touchdown. Most importantly, he had receptions of longer than 30 yards in each of those games.

This type of receiver is yet to be found in Tannehill’s career, and should help going forward. The defensive side of the ball has been no better for Miami during Tannehill’s career, and in 2015 the team finished 19th in points allowed and 21st in pass defense, allowing 4,225 yards through the air. In 2013, Miami’s pass defense finished 16th and 27th in 2012. Also, Miami finished 28th in 3rd down defense in 2015, and they have only finished inside the top 10 in 3rd down defense once during Tannehill’s career. Not having receivers to throw to and an unreliable defense would be enough to impair a young quarterback’s growth. However, the offensive line has probably been more problematic than any of the previous factors mentioned. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 184 times in his 4 year career – the most of any quarterback in that amount of time.

Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – NOVEMBER 13: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Miami Dolphins scrambles for yardage as he is pursued by defensive tackle Kyle Williams #95 of the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter in a game at Sun Life Stadium on November 13, 2014 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

During 2015, Tannehill averaged about 2.57 seconds in time to throw, ranked 30th overall and his time to sack number was 2.48 seconds, ranked 31st overall. Not only does he not have time to get his throws off, he barely has time to take the snap and look around. Russell Wilson’s time to sack average on the other hand is 4.05. Many would argue that Wilson works hard for that time to throw, whereas Tannehill is a sitting duck in the pocket. Fair assessment, until you start looking at the more successful pocket passers in the NFL. Alex Smith has a 4.03 second average to sack, Joe Flacco a 3.68 second average, and Ryan Fitzpatrick a 3.61 second average. One second in the NFL is the difference between the good and great quarterbacks, and the below average ones. Bottom line here: Ryan Tannehill has not brought the Miami Dolphins the prominence we expected him to bring when he was drafted. Has it been his fault? Evidence concludes: absolutely not.

Looking forward, Miami and Ryan Tannehill have a lot of work to do. So far, Tannehill has put up good numbers, but until the numbers in the win column improve he will never be considered great or hardly even good. The main thing is that in order for Ryan Tannehill to improve, the team around him must improve. Even Peyton Manning and Tom Brady need a great defense, offensive line and great coaches in order to produce hall of fame careers and Super Bowl championships. Tannehill deserves the same resources before he is judged four years into a rather turbulent career.

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